| Dutch12 - 8/5/2025 15:25
Thank you for sharing your thoughts. I agree with your premise that market is going to revisit these lows at some point in time. Can you give some more insight on why you think it's coming this fall instead of a year or two from now?
Hi Dutch,
You're welcome. It's hard to explain I guess. If you think about what price as been doing in multiple dimensions, it has been rotating. So you have some dimensions are headed higher, while other are still heading lower and there is a constant tug of war going on. Not time frames, dimensions. They are different. And every swing structure has their multiple dimensions as well. So that constant push-pull by these dimensions is what gives price its chaotic nature. But in reality, its not chaotic at all.
For instance in soybeans, it's pretty easy to see higher lows over the last several months. Some dimensions going up, others got work to do down below and so those opposing forces is what has been keeping price contained. But as time passes, the forces change, some accomplish their jobs and fall off, others fail, new forces comeinto play with new swings being formed and evenutally it becomes forces become lopsided, and price accelerates to expend its remaining energy - and putting in the low. Once that occurs, now the forces at work change again, the weight on price was removed left with a lopsided pull higher. The largest weights on the corn market are those failed swings lows at 3.20 and 3.15. It will become a completely different market once the gravity of those two levels are reached or they fail. Thus essentially why it would be better we stick the pivot sooner than later, to remove the weight off price and allow it to move higher. This is why it seems like fundamentals currently don't matter - cuz they don't. Physics are firmly in control and are going to attempt to finish the jobs they were set out to do and defy "logic".
In addition, price has already been going horizontal there, there is also divergence between price and time. Time has stayed still, while price moved on. This is similar to the forces of in an earthquake where one plate pulls on the other until it snaps. So in beans, the pressure has been storing for months. It just needs released - one way or the other. Corn is similar but is harder to see because its sloped and much bigger. But essentially the same thing is going there where the pressure has been built this year. And there are clues that can be used to estimate the amount of energy that a formation has, and since this is nothing new and I have seen it a thoasand times (or more), I have an educated guess of the outcome. It is very rare - in fact - right now I am drawing a blank where corn would end up going horizontal from this. I would need to look at the analogs to verify but off the top of my head, I cannot come up with it.
As far as timing you would have to ask the time guys what the likely timing dates are. I do not use them in any way shape or form. But my eyeball sees pressure into year end. And if you think about it from a fundamental perspective, that would kinda make sense. "IF" it a record crop, there is going to be lots of storage problems. Bins are full, and no place to go so people are going to be forced to make a sale. That seems logically a reason why the pressure may remain longer than what might be normal.
Sorry for the long winded answer. In a nutshell, its the most likely outcome of these formations with out a whole bunch of pics.
Like I said, I was just trying to prepare people to not panic if it happens. Have a plan in case and know what you are gonna do and not be an emotional trainwreck because good decisions are especially hard then.
Take care
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Brace for impact....
