| wiley159 - 8/5/2025 14:02
Curious how many acres of corn do you think will get planted next year if Dec 26 is say 3.75 assuming 3.25 this Dec . I will never say never but think it would take a black swan to go this low .. Mho
Hi wiley,
Honestly...all of them. We will cut back inputs, beg the banker, tell the kids they can't have new shoes and do whatever it takes to plant them all because that's what farmers do. IMHO - Z26 is on an entirely different path and that is because it will benefit from the expected major low to form before then.
Let's look at the fundamentals from an energy perspective. For months it seems like people are stating that fundamentals aren't mattering anymore as they are not making sense relative to what they should. Carry out too low vs price. Fertilizer to Corn prices are completely out of whack. Basis levels aren't making any sense....etc Tieing in the conversation about divergence from ytd, essentially you have bullish divergence in the fundamental sector occuring - and or failures. And we know that failures in price spawn the largest moves(probably fertlilizer too). Fertilizer is unsustainably high for where prices are. Carryout levels do not support the prices we have let alone lower( IDK, others opinions). And yet - price is storing energy for the next move higher. So even using fundamentals if you think about what is going on from a perspective of energy being expressed, the fundamentals are telling you that something big is brewing down the line. I know there is no way in the world I would sell Z26 out of fear. Not a chance.
Take care |
Brace for impact....
