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Brace for impact....
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AGB
Posted 8/5/2025 13:32 (#11321416 - in reply to #11321242)
Subject: RE: Brace for impact....


Mid-Michigan
ncwi4450 - 8/5/2025 10:58

Does anyone remember when the price of oil went negative, to -$40/barrel? I guess you're right, it didn't last very long

Or in the early 80's, when the Reagan administration suggested dumping overflowing gov't warehouses of old cheese into the ocean?...but, then gave it all away in 5 lb. blocks to low income households. I was about 12 years old when our farm participated in the Dairy Diversion program - I think our farm signed up for cutting 40% of production for a couple of years? Anyway, remember feeding calves milk from the bulk tank to cut enough production, but updated our pipeline and replaced bulk tank with a bigger one during that time.

Later, there was the Whole Herd Buyout, where you bid a price on your entire herd to be culled. If selected, someone would show up at your farm and special tag your entire herd to be slaughtered. That program was not very well accepted by the public, or the beef guys.

So, if we ever find ourselves waiting in line at the landfill to dump corn, soy, or wheat, the bright side is it is likely the bottom......for at least a few years.

I remember everything you mentioned. I remember it so very well that it has lasted with me a lifetime and also why I am not over leveraged. I've been laughed at by why I didn't buy a piece of ground next door. My answer was that it went for 3x what i think it was worth. Same with rent. No way am I going to wear everything i own and work for nothing. That bidding stuff up just so your neighbor didn't get it is a young mans game (someone who didn't farm in the 80's). That period left an indelible mark on me. I hope I'm wrong because lots of the young guys around me are in deep. But the political climate of our country, and the turmoil in the world represents a repeat of history. Hope Willie can do another farm aid (i never did get a penny from that). I like reading this page even though I don't understand half of what most guys are talking about, but I see absolutely no reasons for markets to go up. I do see many signs for the market to go down lots farther than it is. Oh well. Like a big ice storm that culls weak trees, the strong (and smart), will survive. Sorry to say but things (I think), are going to get much worse.
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