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| Hope this finds everyone well. Theres a noticeable uptick in tension here - understandly. I thought I would offer my opinion of what to expect in these type situations to hopefully ad a little clarity to the situation and help some cope if its necessary. What we are going through is not rare. It actually happens daily but it will seem like rare because of the size of the formation in control of the situtation. If we get "lucky", it will seeem like it never will stop going down. I say that because if we expend the remaining amount of energy available to price and create the pivots, while painful process, it will be relavtively short lived. A worst outcome would be price expends the energy horizontally which would mean low prices for an extended amount of time - probably a couple years. So if I had my choice, hit me with the slegdehammer and let the healing begin - vs crushing me a vice for years. Hang in there and get through it. I promise better times are not too far away.
We are looking for a major low in many of the grains. Yield has been the major topic of conversation. I will attempt to put is as nicely as I can, but yield doesn't matter. These are technical moves controlled by physics just like every other aspect or our lives. The headlines will spin it whatever way they need to inform you of what is going on. They are wrong. Every thing that happens will happen as it needs to happen. So when the USDA misses the yield number in Jan, know that it had to be that way because they had to miss it to put in the low. They are pawns to higher powers just like we are.
Many of these formations support a violent pivot. In formations like corn, there will be likely be a downside acceleration, and a faux bottom that will get taken out with the eventual low. Once the low is found, price will now be influenced by the next relevant pivot to this formation. So price will get drug back up regardless of what fundamental news exists. Generally the slope of these moves out of this type of formation is gentle relative to the final slope but the prices offered in the inital stages will be much much better than puking it out at the low. So hang in there. At this time, it appears to me that Z wants to reach 3.25. 3.15 and 3.20 are failed swings on the continuous charts and they are a magnet to price. I guess I am saying that I am reluctant to think that U is gonna make the low like last year. Too me, it appears that Z will remain under pressure with unfinished business.
Beans. Different formation as it has been broadening out for a couple months. It's ultimate low will likely be violent as well and IMHO, one should prepare for an 8.50 print. The previous excursion into new highs lacked any extension and thus from a physics perspective, 7.91 barely had enough energy to make new highs. That level is the last place buyers were seen and it is likely that somewhere between 8.50 and 7.91 they would show up again. Price appreciation out of the eventual pivot should be much more aggressive than what you will see in corn.
Chi Wheat is more corn like. I would prepare to see sub 4.50 and could even see a sub 4.30 if price just plain expends its energy vertically.
Oats - Sub 3 likely- Wouldnt be surprised to see a 2.80 print.
Cotton - Two formations at work there I think. Short term, one should expect a sub 58 print.
Again, I only post this to be helpful. Reading price's nuances is hard and errors are made. I don't walk on water, and I don't wee excellence. I offer this only for guidance so you are not blindsided if these come to fruition - and hopefully soften the emotional blow.
Best of luck and take care
Edited by NEIAAG 8/5/2025 10:19
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Brace for impact....
