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| Marketing patterns will & should change as we await the disaster assistance. Commercial guys own damn little corn. That assistance will push grain sales down the road. Corn stocks are going to get very uncomfortable for many areas. Farmer doesn't need to sell. At this point looks like plenty of room to store new crop. Say what they want, but last years crop got put away fairly handily. Certainly room for more this year. At some point funds will tire of their short position. Exports will remain strong....Europe/Ukraine production is struggling. Brazil move to 30% ethanol will roughly consume an additional 370 million bu of corn. In my opinion that will consume most if not all of the better crop they may harvest. Remember this year, their stocks to use dwindled to around 2%. USDA did not adjust Argy or Brazil production downward very much for last year, so not much of a reason for them to chase better production/stocks higher in the near future. Good ole USA better get use to consuming more beef from Brazil until we can restock our cow herd. As astute marketers, we do have options....big carries in corn right now & wheat for that matter. Hedge it in the deferred months if your uncomfortable & wait for better basis opportunity in new crop. Old crop should see much higher flat price due to basis increases as we move into the lean supply available over the next 60 days. | |
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Disaster money
