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WC MN | That model is a poor forecast tool. Let's see how it verifies. It is basically more of a tool to show what is possible not what is likely. I remember seeing a similar map plenty of times that do not verify. Also spring and summer rains are dominated by thunderstorms which by nature are more sporadic and less easy to predict. My area is calling for close to 3" in next week. I'll report back how close that is.
The weather analysts that want to be taken seriously and stay in business are going to give an honest forecast and effort or they will be gone sooner than later.
With weather there is no crystal ball so all we have is history, and a very short history at that. 12' and 88' are used for references as they are the extreme dry. 93' and 19' could be used for extreme wet if that's what the forecast was tracking.
Part of the reason for concern is how dry certain areas are coming into spring and summer.
There are plenty of garbage click bait forecasters but there are some very good as well.
Edit to add we are probably drier than 11 or 12 at this point. But this year is neither 11 or 12. Heat will be the key.
Edited by IALTO 5/14/2025 17:00
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Ag WX forecasters
