Deltamudd - 5/5/2025 14:16

Theres a good chance that we produce a record crop


Statistics is a good math. Math isn’t something that’s “made up”. It’s something we “discovered” and it’s fundamental to the universe. It’s what makes the world work. We don’t build mega cities and send rockets to space on words. We do it with precise mathematical calculations.

And statistics, like I said, is a really gooood math when used correctly. And when you have a data set that large going back that many years, it’s going to do a better job of predicting future outcomes than if you just had 5 years worth of data.

R^2 measures how well the model predicts future outcomes with the highest possible number being 1. That would mean the model accurately predicts the future outcomes every single time.

.93 is really damn high.

But what’s considered a bad r^2 well that’s subjective but anything below (quick google search) .69 isn’t great. You get down to .5 (50/50 chance) it becomes a coin flip. Not great at predicting.

R^2 is also known as the coefficient of determination.

Out of all my many years of schooling, statistics was the most informative and useful information I learned other than how to read or do basic math.

If someone had told me calculus was heavily involved in trading options I perhaps would have paid more attention. From what I gather, seems like most of the Greeks are just some form of derivative

Like speed acceleration distance or in options its measures of volatility and time price etc



But im also kinda retarded and think I know more than I do