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S Illinois | Counter points.
E-15 is not a demand changer and is a pure optics play. Ability to buy doest equate to sales. What normally happens is those places that can blend and sell E-15 qualify for more RIN's. This allows for a shuffling of more non-blended gasoline to be sold due to a cheaper way to meet the E-10 mandate. Corn is and has gotten planted in many of the early draw areas. All of it no but progress at the end of April was made once south and east of S IL(yes I know S-IL doesn't have much planted). The US corn export river based demand is somewhat weak in the fall as the primary export pull is rail driven from Mexico demand. Those pull points are more west of the River and north.
Don't look at local basis. Its local. One needs the average basis across the US to determine soybean demand. N:Q spread is a tough way to read the market. There is 8 times as much OI in N as Q, and 4 times as much OI in X. Commercials don't even like bidding that much off of Q. Someone can look but I am betting that N24:Q24 also was inverted towards N first notice day last year. The K:N spread is more telling. | |
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Pricing picture going forward, based on facts today........
