East Central South Dakota | Fighting bias in pricing and politics is difficult and a full-time job. "Just the facts mam". In corn, what is the world's appetite for corn? You get rid of carry out by exports. Exports are hot corn because we are for practical purposes the only game in town if you are hungry corn. All season, Monday's loadings on corn and Thursday's sales continue to be good at this price level and cheaper dollar is paying the freight bill. Exports are nine million metric tons ahead of last year---contrary to the white noise of politics. Ethanol going to e-15 and we are meat eaters not salad eaters. When does price need to start rationing supply or can we make it to new crop? Wettest areas in the country are the states they rely on early harvest for supply.
Soybeans, look at your local basis and what is it telling you. Basis first, spreads second and futures last. Spread is inverted between the July and August---no carry, they want beans today. Inversions can run forever higher. Old crop higher than new crop. Exports are five million metric tons ahead of last year---contrary to the white noise of politics. Decent domestic demand. Terrible fall for finish of beans. Is production overstated and demand understated?
Future weather is a terrible variable to make pricing decisions on, HOWEVER. For my map dot, if we don't receive substantial rain by June 10th the odds against a normal crop get drastically higher. I am near sited, bull legged and special education all the way through life, so I have beat the odds before--married well, BUT. We are very dry and no sub-soil. Do you make marketing decisions by the weather of your map dot? I have before and got burnt the majority of the time. This year feels different though. LMAO
EDIT---I very rarely make market advice. If I was an end user of corn, I would be making some purchases down at this level on breaks.
Edited by white shadow 5/4/2025 11:29
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Pricing picture going forward, based on facts today........
