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So what are you doing your with the Cattle Windfall.
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cows-n-crops
Posted 4/24/2025 21:21 (#11201364 - in reply to #11201106)
Subject: RE: So what are you doing your with the Cattle Windfall.


NEMO
Jim - 4/24/2025 16:45

What windfall? I sold down through 2023 and 2024 due to some health issues, now resolved. Certainly not a windfall. I sold some good young and middle age cows at the wrong time and wrong sale for $1200 or so.

So I'm now building back by saving heifers. But every time you save a heifer calf you take her out of the market, so no income from that cow this year. The retainedĀ  heifer doesn't have a calf until her second birthday and it's about another year before that calf is saleable. 3+ years of expenses before any income from a retained heifer calf.

A lot of talk about how cattle prices will collapse, like "$7 corn". But corn production can go up and down in a heartbeat compared to domestic beef cattle. Yet demand is strongĀ  and growing for good US beef.



It can take 6 months to a year to have a meaningful corn crop adjustment globally.

Pigs and chicken can step in and replace meat in the grocery store counter in short order like corn.

Everything is cyclical. Cattle prices won't stay where they are at now like they really should due to all the inflation.

Trumps Tariffs might keep beef imports at bay and keep a floor in the cattle market. One can sure hope.

But I really can't help but think that this thing will back off in a hurry when it does break.

I keep rewarding the market with selling off cattle here and there. If I would take the emotion out of it, the herd would be cut in half.

The old cows and bad bags and bad tempers etc. need to have wheels under them ASAP. It's easy to keep them around when they bring a 3 or 4 hundred dollar bill because one more calf is more than worth the risk to keep her another year. Now the risk is not getting her sold quick enough.
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