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Stock Market Bottom Predictions
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WYDave
Posted 4/8/2025 19:41 (#11181589 - in reply to #11181340)
Subject: RE: Stock Market Bottom Predictions


Wyoming

I would look much more at the indications of fear:

- buying volume vs. selling volume
- size of trade for buys or sells
- NYSE advance/decline ratio
- VIX, put/call ratio
- stocks making new lows vs. stocks hitting new highs
- AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) sentiment survey

and among all those indication, I look for the fear to starting to subside and then continuing to subside.

For example, VIX started going down this morning - and then it turned around and went up again when the retaliation against the CCP was announced. We're not likely at a bottom just yet.

Other indications for sophisticated investors:
- looking at margin expansion or contraction
- Fed's financial stress index and credit spreads

In the commodities markets, I would be looking at commitment of traders indications.

None of these are rock-solid indications of a "bottom is in." Failures in calling a bottom is another reason why I use options more at these peaks and troughs in markets.

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