Wyoming | I would look much more at the indications of fear:
- buying volume vs. selling volume - size of trade for buys or sells - NYSE advance/decline ratio - VIX, put/call ratio - stocks making new lows vs. stocks hitting new highs - AAII (American Association of Individual Investors) sentiment survey
and among all those indication, I look for the fear to starting to subside and then continuing to subside.
For example, VIX started going down this morning - and then it turned around and went up again when the retaliation against the CCP was announced. We're not likely at a bottom just yet.
Other indications for sophisticated investors: - looking at margin expansion or contraction - Fed's financial stress index and credit spreads
In the commodities markets, I would be looking at commitment of traders indications.
None of these are rock-solid indications of a "bottom is in." Failures in calling a bottom is another reason why I use options more at these peaks and troughs in markets. |