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MB, Canada | I would imagine all the futures will be in the toilet for a while. That ship has sailed now. Even if the tariffs were reversed tomorrow, the rest of the world is now fully attuned to the flippant and logic-defying way that this government operates. Companies are not going to suddenly move manufacturing to a country where the policy they're basing said move on could be reversed tomorrow. I would suspect most foreign companies are simply going to find alternative markets and wait it out until the next government. But it'll still be very bad for business so the stock market will continue to weaken and drag cattle futures down with it.
That said, I think the fundamentals are still in favor of the cattle producer, though I honestly have no idea whether that remains true when reciprocal tariffs come on from export markets like South Korea, Japan, and China. But my guess is that actual prices are going to remain relatively strong, at least until the consumer has to face the fact that their 401k has tanked and retirement isn't going to be as comfortable as they hoped it might be. Uncertainty is probably going to keep growth to a minimum so that should be in the cow/calf guy's favor.
Of course this is all a guess and could be entirely wrong but that seems to be all even the experts can come up with now. This is all so unprecedented it feels not unlike a wartime scenario. | |
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where are prices going
