|
EC SoDak | I like to look at what some levels of floors and ceilings are for price targets (when I have the data available to me anyways) and then time it with seasonals. Sometimes you have to call an audible though, like fall of 23 into the winter of 24, knowing we are coming out of a historically high prices, it made sense to get rid of corn that fall and winter as prices tumbled, basis was strong, and on farm storage was high. Personally, the ethanol plant was a ghost town that winter, so I knew people were holding onto corn waiting on higher prices, so I dumped all the remaining that winter.
So, in my mind, doing some forward hedging makes sense when you get way out of whack with the corn/bean ratio to set up for planting intensions. Then, typically mid April-June is where the bulk of your hedges should be set. Historically it drops off July and on unless something major happens. I’d guess May 1-June 20th ish is where a guy would want to do a bulk of their hedges.
There is a gentleman on here (I apologize, I don’t remember his name, I haven’t seen anything posted in a while either) that posts his newsletter that identifies price targets. I also borrowed CubicalRefugee’s charts from below to show you what I mean. As you’ll see, we are getting close to a major level of resistance/ceiling. Rough numbers are 4.88, 5.10, 520ish I believe for the coming levels of resistance.
Edit to add- Personally I use hedges vs options. I have bins, so I like to separate board prices and basis as well and have the ability to roll my hedges if the market carry calls for it.
Edit to add some more: Time will tell if this was wise, but I negotiated basis for my remaining 24 corn for Feb and March delivery a couple weeks or so ago. I have 90 days to price once I start delivery on each contract. So now, I’ll just have to see how price behaves for when I want to set price.
Edited by SoDak Farms 1/19/2025 19:59
 (IMG_7534 (full).jpeg)
 (IMG_7533 (full).jpeg)
Attachments
----------------
 IMG_7534 (full).jpeg (58KB - 5 downloads)
IMG_7533 (full).jpeg (62KB - 4 downloads)
| |
|
monthly date to sell grain
