Dryland corn is coming off.. fast.  I know we’ll all hear the stories of elevators full.. can only dump if sold etc.

Here’s our side of the story..  A quarter section out here may be planted to Corn 158 acres.. with a pivot in it.. 127 acres.  I kind of view this as the corn belt in general.. We get south winds.. the south side of a corn field here.. depending upon the year.. will fry.. a little.. or a lot of the way in.. so generally I try to insulate by planting dryland or a lower rate.  That would be dryland in Kansas.. 78 bu APH, Let’s say it’s on a sand ridge.. bingo Kansas.. The northeast side of that quarter may be a good flat.. Dryland in Nebraska.. does 125.. 140 bu.

Part of the pivot may be a low area.. with some drown out..Minnesota etc.. and Part of the pivot may be good rolling ground.. Iowa at 240 and part a flat of good dirt protected by the rest.. 270 bu up to 300.

So.. we kind of see it all.  We fried in 2011 and 2012.. the meteorologist on the radio said it.. and I can still remember this quote..

”Boys what we got here is 40,000 feet of SUPER DRY air.. it’s where cold fronts go to die.”

and that was literally the case.. Meteorologist also talked about the moisture being.. “cooked” out of the air.. allowing for the temperatures to rise.. my boys played basketball in an un air conditioned gym.. we were the last game.. going home my youngest.. at 10 pm..”oh it feels so good.. it’s only 108.” Coming out of.. more than that.

In 2009 we only recorded 4 days over 100 degrees.. a really good corn crop.. 2010 the elevators were still full.. I had grain contracted but was turned down.. “sorry we’re full.. can’t take it.”  I had a bin so filled that and delivered later to a feedlot in their name.

Our Coop probably built 500k of storage a year for a decade all through the teens.. and we needed it as we filled it.

We had another drought here in 2022.. pivots.. some didn’t break 100 bushels.  Our coop had built grain bins.. like a 500 k expansion at a satellite facility which.. one bin I don’t believe has had a single bushel in it for two years yet.. That’s how it can go.. and is going here.

Kansas planted an extra 500,000 acres of corn this year and it’s mostly dryland as that can flex around from Wheat, sorghum, alfalfa, cotton.. etc..  Specifically in this area we have our share.. two neighbors never have planted corn before.. one tried a couple quarters.. another a little over a section.

What I call the I 35 corridor to my east.. used to be wheat.. now is almost totally corn and soybeans.. good dirt.. just a smidge more rain.. and reliable rains.. more to do it.  Tack another 2 to 3k on land values.. the increase in organic matter from growing corn is increasing their soil sponge.. and yields.. subject to weather.. are increasing.
… the main positive is they’ve stopped the wheat.. plow.. wheat.. plow rotation.  And they are capturing carbon.. which (“we keep doing this.. and in a million years or so.. we’re really going to have something..”). And kid you not.. in my lifetime.. they used to do.. 40..50.. 60 bu wheat.. now.. 120..140..160 bu corn.. (why grow wheat?) they strip nitrogen in the fall.. it rains.. or snows.. they are out of the gates early.. they have their atrazine down.. watered in.. It’s not Iowa.. but.. looks good. 

That corn.. was off this year as it’s drier to my east as the drought hangs on.. mostly did 100 bu.. we’re watching the trucks run between there through here.. to the feedlots to my west.

We have some good dirt.. but a lot more sand.. again raising dryland corn will give you a wheat yield kick of around 10%.. give or take.. Corn.. ghost wheat crop of.. 15 to 40.. good wheat crop of 8..10 bu better than the rest that 2nd year after corn.  Plus you break up the cheat cycle.. so that’s why we do this..(seed is how much?  Okay well maybe we’ll do sorghum.. or whatever..)

Okay results.. the neighbor who runs 3 machines.. a couple in high moisture.. “we’ve picked about 20 circles so far.. the fields that should have done 270 or more.. are down.. 20 30 bu vs what I expected.. some 270 bu corn.. not enough.. the lower crap.. 180.. is good 210 ish but..

Dryland.. all over the board.. 2 truckloads from a quarter up to 100 bushels a smidge over.. probably 60 bu average so far..

Our local elevator.. hasn’t dumped a single truck yet.

it’s ALL gone to the ethanol plants or the feedlots.. and we’re over a third done on dryland.

In fact.. local elevator.. “are ya going to dump on the ground?”

”Golly I hope not.. we’re only 25% full.. and we got another facility completely empty.”

my point.. there is zero hedge pressure coming from us.. we are empty.. the last shuttle I know of came in about 10 days ago.. and there’s enough coming off new to meet demand.

So you get my perspective of what harvest looks like here.

we get a report.. WASDE on Thursday.

sept stocks on the end of the month..

The guys complaining about not a good finish last year got drowned out by the “where did it come from crowd.”  Yet.. the signs are there to admit.. June stocks report with inflated on farm stocks vs the elevator.. the bump in feed and residual error in the WASDE..

it may only be 50 million bushels.. 20 to 150.. they bumped 75 in F&R over two crops.. and bumped I think ethanol 75 for 1..

so not a big adjustment but.. noticeable..

with 180 bu yields., and “a chunk” of 60 bushel yields from a million acres or so.. someone has to do 300+ or ALOT of 270.. to reach 183..

uh huh.  Some days I think that NASS and Stone X leans too much to the Illinois side.. (congrats on beating KU last night btw).. but forgets the rest.

They had us at like 750 million bushels.. #7 or so.. but it’s our variability.. 60 bu.. 20 bu.. 120.. or 150 bu dryland which is very hard to gauge.

I still expect to harvest a significant amount of 270 bu irrigated.. but we’ll see.

and I still expect to see $5 corn this fall.  Here.