|
S Illinois | Do you take the Trend Adjust endorsement with regards to crop insurance? That’s the concept that yield potential continues to march upward. I would think most would say they have better potential than 8 years ago.
There is always bad stuff somewhere every year. No year is perfect. Yes if everyone had perfect, 190 could be had. As soon as planting was not perfect and the flooding came though yield of 185-186 plus was off the table. But the has most definitely been good enough to get to 182-183. There is an argument with regards to location of acres skewing national yield potential but it continues to go up.
There is a mental aspect to this also that is exacerbated by how close we are to the crop. Take someone who has no connection to crops and the data makes sense. Famers however are close to the crop and that makes objectivity harder to attain. Most see only their local 15 miles at least to the point to know its potential. In the present we also have the tendency to focus on the worst part and not the average and especially the average compared to prior years. So if we focus on the worst part currently and compare those perfect years that were never actually perfect or as good as we remember, crop size will always come in under what we feel it has to.
Think back on your career as to what you consider a good yield. Likely sometime in the mid 2000’s you went from 200 being a good/great yield to now being disappointing. Yet when going through that it was hard to fathom thinking the mindset could change. | |
|
Yield Surveys
