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S Illinois | True there is no one that can predict yield perfectly accurate prior to it being harvested. Yet business decisions are made everyday on that very thing. Farm yields cannot be predicted accurately and not for just the upcoming seasons but rather years of expected production. So the idea that because it can’t be perfect today means it can’t be estimated is an argument that holds little weight especially when the historical data and the simple statistical analysis of that data in in plain sight to see.
Yes there could be cost savings by eliminating reports and personnel. USDA reports are a data source like all other market research. Traders who use USDA data will look for other data sources if available, take a more protected position or reduce their trading volume. Highly traded markets mean deep markets which means liquidity. Low liquidity markets mean more trader protection markets. So we find a new trade participant equilibrium. One where higher trade costs are born by user and producer. So in the end we get a lower volume, higher trader protection market. Much like the smaller volume crops already being traded. In the end we are no better off and the blame is then passed to traders or commercials much like was done all during the 20th century. Pricing complaints will always be part of production ag. Just who they are directed at gets changed over time. | |
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Yield Surveys
