| w1891 - 8/31/2024 09:24
They didn’t spend big $$$’s that they have to recoup. It’s relatively easy to take a crude oil faculty and make it into a RD facility. So instead of an EPA nightmare at an outdated faculty, they can just slap a sticker on it and say this is a RD facility now.
The issue soybean oil is the $3.20+ transportation costs it takes just to get enough the 8lbs of soybean oil in the door to run. So that leaves policy and the tax credits as the deciding factor. Right now “waste” is the preferred feedstock. It’s also why aren’t seeing exploding crush but rather incremental crush increases.
Edit: You are also putting an awful big amount of weight on a single line item increase that can be as easily explained as demand was big in the 4th quarter. Poor basis, cratering board price, large carry says yes the supply was there.
1) Some of us don’t have $3.20 transportation costs..
2) “ It’s relatively easy to take a crude oil faculty and make it into a RD facility.” Yes it is.. and when margins are there.. see story above.
3) “You are also putting an awful big amount of weight on a single line item increase that can be as easily explained as demand was big in the 4th quarter. “
well.. this year we had more inventory so yes.. more to export, crush, refine and feed than last year.. but not as much as we think we have.. but I digress.. So you’ll concede that carryout for 23/24 is coming down.. hence carry in for 24/25.
they still have to rectify their residual error line item.. smaller crop.. more demand.. call it whatever.. but they already admitted that it exists.. I guess that’s more up your department on how they treat it..
280 million bushels of demand per week.. and climbing. A rain here.. slaps x amount on to the basis..3 week delay and we are OUT of corn.. but you knew that already..
Record ethanol grind.. only to be bested this next year..…. And I haven’t even touched the Ukrainian push into Russian Black Sea wheat areas.. nor Putin’s war mongering of using tactical nukes.. “oh my.”
Hopefully that doesn’t spiral out of control any more than it already has.. but.. things could go south in a hurry..
does Wheat lead this rally? |
Assumptions for Renewables vs the current situation.
