Okay the bad news.. trapped DP contracts are out of the way.

September delivery.. which.. if I had the means.. I’d buy and stand for delivery.. but that’s just me.  Bet I know a place I could deliver it..  (shhh)

Read this article.. about how profits and operations were.. “misjudged.”

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2023/11/the-biodiesel-profitability-squeeze-that-wasnt.html

so They missed it.. “whoops.”

Here are the locations of renewable diesel, bio diesel.. SAF plants etc..

https://issuu.com/bbiinternational/docs/biodieselmap-2024-final

I know of a plant or two which are not on that map.. one is a shuttered 55 myn ethanol plant.. bolt on SAF converted to like 35 myn SAF which is starting up.. I’m not allowed to share more.  It’s in the Cornbelt.

“Small changes” will have big impacts.. see the story above.

Everyone thinks the Bean rally this week was due to..

A) China buying..
B) Trapped DP squeeze ending..
C) Short Funds..
D) Technicals finding a bottom..

E) all of the above..

Note again in the article.. the best margins occurred at.. high prices.. It doesn’t necessarily matter (it does.. but also.. it doesn’t..) where prices are.. It matters WAY WAY MORE what MARGINS are..

It can be.. and HAS BEEN profitable to make RD, FAME and SAF at $12 soybeans.. as well as “not so much” at $9.00.

It just has..

I purposefully DID NOT post this while markets were open.. but chew on this over the weekend.

Im watching Bean Oil..

Do we get imports shut down or reduced?

What does all this capacity for RD, FAME and SAF do?  They didn’t build it just to look at it.. 

Everyone now has a new crusher to sell to.. in Kansas we have 2.. 1 built ground up.. the other converted from mothball.. neither are very big.. but Iowa, Nebraska the Dakotas and others are..

ITS gonna be a RECORD year for crush.  Again they didn’t build new crushers just to look at them.

I realize the rest of y’all probably do not see the basis movements which we do.. but..  have you checked?

the east coast is burning up.. so the eastern Cornbelt has opportunities.. or you could just DP at your local elevator.. how’d that work out?

I won’t belabor it.. but I’m sticking to my guns.. 2023 corn crop was overstated.. no way was there 3 billion on the farm June 1st.. but that was overshawdowed by the trapped dp and short funds.. they could squeeze it since then.. but NOW the buyers have got to secure it.. OR PAY MORE.

no doubt some will play chicken.. but with Record Short Funds.. someone.. China?  Is gonna blink.. then it’s Game on.. going the other way.

Cheers. 

I will make this prediction.. 24/25 corn carryout will come in.. under 2 billion.. probably 1.8 or less.

$5 corn coming. 

we are about to enter the most profitable time in US Ag history.. and the consensus is.. “nobody sees it coming.” 

for some reason.. I like this song..

https://youtu.be/x47wRwdJfPQ?si=88Q6jUgnBDX7R7zy