white shadow - 8/27/2024 13:03

The USDA has a tremendous amount of influence in the market, that is a given we all can agree on. However, I also believe that the market works. If the poor finish continues, end users will want to cover and if exports continue to improve the market will respond, regardless of the USDA numbers. I get as frustrated as anyone about an antiquated system of reporting that has been resistant to change---change that could be technology driven. That being said, while we all recognize the power of the USDA numbers, that power doesn't exist to the degree it can negate or stop the influence of new market conditions such as a poor finish and good exports. 2020 is a classic example in my opinion. Sometimes it takes the big ocean freighter of the USDA time to turn around and we on the ground see the current conditions and want little speed boat reactions. Averaging good with bad is a tricky proposition on the farm level, now try to imagine what it is like on the national level.