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| It's not as simple as just running Brazil out of beans, things have changed in China. I will put the changes I see below
1) China has now admitted to over counting their population by 150 million people and many think it may have been 300 million. This miscount has all happened in the last 35ish years, so that is what most people consider people the are in their consumption years.
2) The realization of this population error has caused the Chinese government to mandate a 4 million head reduction in the Chinese sow herd ( some claim that they will move it up 2 million additional head in 2025) I believe the entire US sow herd is 6 million.
3) just as we did in the 70's with Japan once you get in a tariff war with another country they retaliate, and when you let it get personal ( name calling, tell them what terrible people they are ) they dig their feet in and take their money and business elsewhere and China did that just like Japan did.
4) when their money goes elsewhere it goes to a place where the investment capital allows them to produce more of the very thing you purchase from them more economically.
5) this process takes years to happen but a major portions off the Brazilian build is now helping open up bigger areas for production, and cutting the cost for Brazil to grow and ship those beans to China.
Over the last 10 days China has been in our market buying new crop beans, the problem is right now they fell like what if bean instead of we demand beans. Will that change in mid September when the Brazilian dry season ends and the farmers of Brazil are allowed to start the planting window in Brazil. I guess that will be or first clue.
Edited by Crowcrick 8/24/2024 08:31
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At what point will Brazil begin to not have enough soybeans for.china
