East Central South Dakota | The Burlington Northern (BN) is the only game in South Dakota. Tariff prices keep going up and performance keeps going down. If some export customers show up at the harvest slot and are willing to pay some freight it will help the harvest glut----if the BN can perform.
Biggest unknown is how harvest is going to progress. The northern regions I fear are going to experience a long drawn out and miserable harvest. 3 million bushels coming at you over 3 weeks is much harder to put a roof over than 3 million over 2 months. Moisture content and price will affect the speed of harvest.
Today, our shuttle loader basis is -40 and local e-plant is -45. Last year we couldn't begin to compete with a domestic processor bid. Corn exports are decent compared to last year when Brazil almost exclusively fed the export market. https://www.ams.usda.gov/mnreports/wa_gr101.txt
Old crop is going to have to feed local processors way longer than most years with the late harvest up here. If harvest is as late as I think it will be, it will be interesting to watch freight trade with elevators facing delivery of freight with no grain to fill the trains. This could push basis higher if the fields are harvestable. Your freight position is huge in how it affects your operating margin. Going to be an interesting year with a lot of possible scenarios right up to Christmas.
Eastern corn belt is its own monster, I know even less about.
Edited by white shadow 8/21/2024 14:00
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Fall basis bids
