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| How accurate has the crop tour been in the past?
It is hard to compare the actual yield numbers when it comes to the crop tour.
It makes more sense to compare how the crop tour vs USDA sees yield changing year over year rather than the crop tour vs USDA's actual yield numbers.
But if we take a look at the tours corn yield vs the USDA's final yield on average since 2001, here are the numbers:
• Minnesota: -6.5 bpa
• South Dakota: -5.3 bpa
• Illinois: +3.9 bpa
• Indiana: +4.2 bpa
• Ohio: +4.6 bpa
• Iowa: +6.7 bpa
• Nebraska: +14.1
Based off past years, results for Day 1 & 2 would give us:
• South Dakota: (156.51 - 5.3) = 151.21 vs USDA's 162
• Ohio: (183.29 + 4.6) = 187.89 vs USDA's 188
• Indiana: (187.54 + 4.2) = 191.74 vs USDA’s 207
• Nebraska: (173.25 + 14.1) = 187.36 vs USDA’s 194
However, historically the crop tour does underestimate total US yield.
The past 2 years they have been -5 bpa too low on the corn crop.
So based on other years, whatever total yield they find this year, you might be able to add +4 to +5 and that could be accurate to this year's final yield. Unless we get a year like 2020 where the tour was 6 bpa too high.
So even if the crop tours project for example a 178 yield, past years suggest we might actually be closer to the USDA's 183.
But again, the best way to gauge the crop tour is not its direct correlation vs the USDA. Rather how it sees this years crop vs last years.
So far, this is how the tour vs USDA see the crops YOY. (This Year vs Last Year)
USDA
• SoDak: 162 vs 152 (+10 bpa)
• Ohio: 188 vs 198 (-10 bpa)
• Indiana: 207 vs 203 (+3 bpa)
• Nebraska: 194 vs 182 (+12 bpa)
Crop Tour
• SoDak: 156.5 vs 157.4 (-2.1 bpa)
• Ohio: 183.3 vs 183.9 (-0.6 bpa)
• Indiana: 187.5 vs 180.9 (+6.6 bpa)
• Nebraska: 173.2 vs 167.2 (+5 bpa)
So relative to the USDA, the crop tour thus far sees South Dakota & Nebraska corn smaller, while seeing Indiana and Ohio bigger YOY in comparison to the USDA.
Keep in mind, part of the discrepancy can be due to harvest acre changes.
(Will have an updated version when rest of tour is done)
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How accurate has Pro Farmer crop tour been in the past?
