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| Daily Corn (1st Chart)
Corn fails yesterdays key reversal.
Yesterday we made new contract lows, then closed above the previous days highs.
Disappointing to not get follow through today, being drug down by beans .
If we can hold $3.90 (USDA day’s lows) that would be promising.
If not.. next downside target & big support is still $3.80
If we can claw above the $4.09 resistance the chart would look really friendly
Realistically tho, we need above $4.23-$4.26 to be calling a bottom
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Monthly Corn (2nd Chart)
What is left to pressure corn?
Yes, there is a lot of supply that will be entering the market. Which may make a major rally until post harvest hard.
Yes we will have a lot of farmer selling.
But we already know we have massive crops and record yields.
Yield came in at a massive 183 yet carryout shrunk.
We are at prices where demand should start to only increase from here.
Could we see another -40 cents of downside?
It is absolutely possible especially if yield creeps closer to 185 or demand deteriorates.
I don’t think it’s the most likely scenario, but $3.40-50 Dec corn is not out of the cards.
As we found support there many times in other bear market years.
That probably only happens IF this crop gets even bigger and demand disappears.
I don’t see either of these happening, as corn growing season is over and we should start finding more demand. But both are possible.
I am not sure how much bigger this crop could actually get on the balance sheets, or if demand is going to weaken to the point where it will justify the funds keeping this big of short position at these already low prices.
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Monthly Beans (3rd Chart)
Beans touch that $9.60 trade war resistance target.
Beans NEED China to step in here.
If not?
No telling how low we could go.
When China steps in, it’ll be a good indicator the bottoms in.
But until then.. risk is still lower.
We are officially in the bear market territory.
If we take out $9.60 we are actually back to trade war levels.
During other bear market years, we didn’t find support sometimes until low $9's or even sub $9.
Right now our stocks to use ratio and US ending stocks would indicate that a scenario like that is possible IF China doesn’t start to come in and buy.
As we have our 3rd largest endings stocks ever and the first time having a stocks to use ratio above 12% since the trade war. Which means last time stocks to use was that high, beans traded sub $9
(All charts below)
 (ZCZ2024_2024-08-13_15-50-19 (full).jpg)
 (ZC1!_2024-08-13_15-52-40 (full).jpg)
 (ZS1!_2024-08-13_15-58-39 (full).jpg)
Attachments
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 ZCZ2024_2024-08-13_15-50-19 (full).jpg (67KB - 100 downloads)
ZC1!_2024-08-13_15-52-40 (full).jpg (66KB - 103 downloads)
ZS1!_2024-08-13_15-58-39 (full).jpg (70KB - 101 downloads)
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Corn & bean charts. Corn fails key reversal. Beans enter trade war levels
