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3.12 corn and 7.90 beans
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NEIAAG
Posted 8/12/2024 09:48 (#10848175 - in reply to #10848128)
Subject: RE: 3.12 corn and 7.90 beans


fatan sassy - 8/12/2024 09:08

NEIAAG - 8/11/2024 20:52

IN555 - 8/11/2024 20:20

So according to our government inflation is up 20.8% since the start of covid. If you just took today's futures price and adjust it for inflation just during that timeframe that makes corn 3.12 and 7.90 on the board. So yes I understand that grain prices and inflation don't track hand and hand but in that short of a period there should be a strong correlation. The cost of living is up that much, machinery, labor, inputs and so much more that make these current prices as cheap as we have seen since pre ethanol boom. Just a little perspective of where we are price wise with the market expecting a monster crop.


I get your point, but I don't think that is correct. Or not the way I would look at it anyway. 20.8 percent added to a price is not the same as 20.8 pct subtracted. There's about 45 cents difference. 999 minus 20.8 pct is 791. But 791 plus 20.8 pct is 955. Not pleasant either way but it is dependent on how's it's calculated.

Take care


Correct.
Take the covid low of 2020 times 1.21 to get what that the low would look like today adjusted for inflation. Ballpark #s $8.50 times 1.21 would be $10.30.
Nov SB setting at 9.80 at the moment.

Now check inputs$$$$$$$$
Well above 21% on many major costs on a farm.


You will get no argument from me. Inputs are too high relative to the price outlook. Z25 is at a carry and projecting 350. That's gonna hurt.

Take care
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