| SoDak Farms - 7/25/2024 22:44
That’s great you did, lots of negative comments to those that did through last summer during a thread in August on here, hopefully many have done the same though! I’m not betting on it, most candid conversations I’ve had suggest folks are way under sold or hedged for this year’s crop. They haven’t even thought about next years.
It’s not ego. It’s being firm, confident, and trying to show proof so people can market better. Which is better than waiting until August and then folks asking what the heck they should do, the markets wrong, the market just doesn’t understand, we don’t have the on farm stocks, ethanol is going to chew through another billion bushels beyond a record but they’re waiting because they don’t want to make money now, etc. Every year we hear those examples and people leave a lot of money on the table waiting on a black swan event.
I wasn't referring to me. What I did or didn't do isn't even a concern. The corn market has been in a down trend for quite awhile. I know of many people that that have multi year hedges and with the carry, have been rolling and just tacking on to the base price. So it's easy to get vocal and braggadocios when you hedge account is getting fat, but it's also easy to get caught up in thinking you got it figured out. Then price deviates from your expectations and it goes sideways. For instance, your seasonal chart says the low is in late August. So not only are there years where the market counter seasonal, but other years where the lows aren't found til January.
So are seasonal charts helpful..yes. are they gospel? Not even close and there are lots of markets with no or little seasonality and if there is, the majority of the moves are consumed by the spreads.
I will stop there and keep my other opinions to myself.
Take care
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NW Iowa
