It’s a big area to estimate.. we all face our own challenges.  As I’ve posted here we’re facing dryness not seen since the 1930s and comparisons to 1936.  This morning we have a heavy dew with humidity in the air so that’s helping.  However in regards to wheat damage which has been done.. We continue to wait for moisture to seed fall crops on dryland.  We’re 65% seeded on the irrigated.. the straglers have given up on rain and fired up pivots.. so it’s dragging the season out.  We can plant for awhile yet.. in fact it may be beneficial to wait and try to get on the backside of the August heat for grain fill.. but that will impact rotations.

I don’t subscribe to the drought talk led to a crop recovery last year.. NASS has admitted to not having its normal data for every county.  When we finally measure up.. I’m expecting the stocks numbers to be adjusted down.

Farmdoc did a good article on where the expansion in corn acres occurred adding 12 million acres since the 1990 to 2005 average.  This occurred mostly in the plains with Ks, ND, SD, and Nebraska accounting for over half of the acreage expansion.

https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2024/03/impacts-of-corn-acreage-increases-on-national-corn-yields.html  

The reduction in acreage and yields in the fringe can be offset somewhat by the core Cornbelt hitting its stride.. so I’ll concede that it’s hard to judge.  Too wet is bad for some.. too dry is bad for others.. etc.

Demand continues to grow as does the worlds economy and demand for commodities.  Most are crediting the developing dryness in Russia, the additional resources given to Ukraine so the war will drag on.. and the growing challenges of producing wheat, Crude oil and refined products in a war zone.  Ukraine continues to hit Russian refining assets.  

https://www.cnn.com/2024/04/27/europe/ukraine-russia-oil-refinery-drone-attack-intl/index.html

The world isn’t running out of complicated problems in need of being solved.. Challenges are going to remain. 

(94839A2E-DB9E-4D8E-A806-0082E49CB98B (full).png)

(4B0AD66D-4835-4A93-A891-6F85BEBE3F6B (full).png)

(47A890A0-102B-47B4-85F3-2C971E52542B (full).png)

(14B6CF58-C42B-44AC-BD5A-4A267C984948 (full).png)

(0EEEA433-4BEE-4E84-A60F-AEA4FBE85AB2 (full).png)

(E48F2465-C9B5-4ECE-8414-9AE37AAEC423 (full).jpeg)

(C2CB3862-8A5F-4288-ACB9-4A74A0BE9A92 (full).jpeg)

(827A4489-F5FA-4142-98A8-D5B882E520B5 (full).png)

94839A2E-DB9E-4D8E-A806-0082E49CB98B (full).png (53KB - 397 downloads)

4B0AD66D-4835-4A93-A891-6F85BEBE3F6B (full).png (58KB - 387 downloads)

47A890A0-102B-47B4-85F3-2C971E52542B (full).png (77KB - 375 downloads)

14B6CF58-C42B-44AC-BD5A-4A267C984948 (full).png (46KB - 368 downloads)

0EEEA433-4BEE-4E84-A60F-AEA4FBE85AB2 (full).png (125KB - 375 downloads)

E48F2465-C9B5-4ECE-8414-9AE37AAEC423 (full).jpeg (106KB - 281 downloads)

C2CB3862-8A5F-4288-ACB9-4A74A0BE9A92 (full).jpeg (118KB - 288 downloads)

827A4489-F5FA-4142-98A8-D5B882E520B5 (full).png (153KB - 371 downloads)