“Only a matter of time..”

Crude oil is widely regarded as being first pumped in Western Pennsylvania at Drakes well in 1859

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History_of_the_petroleum_industry

From there John D Rockefeller first controlled prices by creating the “Standard oil Company” monopoly controlling the choke points at the refineries in conjunction with the railroads..

Skipping ahead to the Texas Railroad commission (strange name for a world energy influencer but..) which kind of ran things for awhile until it was replaced by the forming of..OPEC.. in Baghdad in 1960..

https://www.opec.org/opec_web/en/about_us/24.htm

Arab Oil Embargo.. Saddam Huessien takeover of Iraq..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Saddam_Hussein
 
Desert Storms 1 and 2.. kicked his butt out of power and hung him..  but took two US Presidents to finally do it.. both named Bush.

the Peak of conventional produced oil.. around 2006..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peak_oil

Coupled with bad mojo after “winning in Iraq” ushering in a spike in prices.. and “Change” with Barrack Obama.. in 2008..

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_policy_of_the_Barack_Obama_administration

a diversification away from Peak Oil.. as a concern with “Climate Change.”

as the new mantra..

sorry I have to save then edit.. or it gets deleted..  So now OBiden (or Obama 3.0) has still pretty much run things..

renewable electricity.. wind turbines.. solar farms.. transmission lines to the metropolitan areas.. (just don’t build a wind farm on an Indian reservation without getting a mining permit first.. https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/eenews/2024/01/03/judge-orders-removal-of-oklahoma-wind-farm-in-victory-for-tribe-00133460 whoopsie.)

And golly of all role reversals the US shale Revolution has the US atop the pack in Crude Oil production.. heck we even ship Crude to China..

 https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=MTTEXCH1&f=M 

Supposedly someone even owns stock in a Chinese importing company with connections to a certain US political figure.. (checking.. ) but this is market talk so we’ll stop going down that rabbit hole now.. 

 OPEC + was recognized when Russia agreed to limit production after the OPEC price war in 2014.. to constrain US production..

 https://www.vox.com/2014/11/28/7302827/oil-prices-opec 

as commodities washed out.. and the funds became big shorts.. in everything.

similarly to today? 

The US is a drop in the bucket.. in reserves.. vs the rest of the world..

https://www.eia.gov/naturalgas/crudeoilreserves/

 And the OBiden administration sold out on selling out of the SPR to calm domestic prices.. while ramping up US production.

Okay have I set the stage?

Now we got conflicts in the Middle East.. with the Red Sea being basically shut down..  (anybody wanna go volunteer to drive an oil tanker by a coast where rebels are launching missiles at passers by?  Me neither..)

And Ukraine is starting to attack Oil refineries along the Black Sea in Russia..

 https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-oil-refinery-russia-kremlin-revenue/ 

What could go wrong?

Russia has been dumping everything it can to get rubles to fight its war.. selling its wheat.. Ukraines wheat (occupied).. and even Crude oil to India and China with its illegal black tanker fleet..  do the Houthi's give that a pass? 

“Comrade.. DUCK.. here comes a missile..”

???

Did I mention the US is exporting Crude to China?

who is contemplating invading Taiwan..

hmmm

the world is becoming so complex..