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| I think the $2 floor was raised to $3 in the early 2000's from the increased demand from the RFS
I think the $3 floor is being raised to $4.50 from the increased demand for soy, coming for renewable diesel. Todays B:C $ ratio is 2.74:1 Demand for beans is increasing, dragging the price of corn up.
I say 4.50 because if you look at the two previous price periods....
the early 2000's a normal seasonal rally, excluding wx markets, took highs to around $3
The RFS boom made lows around $3 and normal seasonal highs around $4.50 excluding wx markets
It feels like we have a counter-seasonal marketing year. I can usually expect the market to rally thru Christmas, maintain until the Jan report and then fall back, and regain around March 1 what we lost in 2nd half of Jan and Feb.
I find that in normal years, corn has around a 29% range. if todays low $4.47 is the bottom, I think we could see $5.76
The trend is your friend, and I considering where we are at right now, my inclinations are that we are still, on the long term, gaining, not losing. This sentiment may not be reflected by some who deeply analyze the market on a day to day basis, more from the 30k foot view.
Attachments
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 corn seasonals.pdf (14KB - 92 downloads)
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Corn
