Pitt - 1/13/2024 11:32
This is what I have been trying to convey since the spring time. If a person zooms in a bit tow the last 20 years or so you will see how remarkably the price of the 2009-2013 span is to the 2020-now spend is and why I have been pounding the table on this pattern. In that monthly on the 20 span you will also see the possibility of a rally in the next few months up to the $5.20 mark based on corn. But ultimately we head lower to the $3.ish mark and will wallow there for several years with the odd bump to the high$4.ish range.
Could you provide this 20 chart Ehoff ?
P.S. I had talked about this new plateau back in 2004 and was ridiculed.
Possible.
Looking over the grain stocks.. and we can debate till the cows come home.. but some areas had a decent crop.. others not so much.
Reading the Land thread.. $520 rent.. There is a lot of wealth to be burned off.. I posted about the battle between undersold producers vs underbought buyers..
Free DP.. Basis contracts etc.. (as usual) buyers are trying to pry bushels from locked bins any way they can.. to ship from weak basis to strong.. like here.
We've sold enough so we’re done..
A neighbor hasn’t sold any.. has told me he borrowed on an operating note.. but is in a high tax bracket.. so feels he’s paying with the governments $$$ and hasn’t priced much of his 2023 crop. He doesn’t need to sell.. he can live on other income for the next year.. and he’s half again larger than me.
There’s alot of producers in that category.. again see the debate on Land.. (should have cashed in investments and bought the neighbors farm for some stupid high price..). It wouldn’t appear that a strategy of smoking these guys out is gonna yield much..
meanwhile we are one Red Sea attack away from lighting a fuse in crude oil.
so I could see fundamental reasons why we bounce..
Longer term.. your outlook is probably also correct..
There’s enough broke farmers somewhere that we can import into the US to break it.
See Ukrainian wheat coming into the US a few months back..
otherwise I believe we’ll see the standoff continue.
anywho.. got the popcorn.. watching the show. | 
Corn
