|
Central Missouri | This chart always puts price into context. It shows the 3 era,s of price during our lifetimes. Most important corn price will be between 3.00 and 8.50 ish probably for the next 20 years. The chart shows where price is at currently 4.48 ish for old crop. As the chart indicates it is possible for price to get much worse.
A good study to see where price is today in the current price cycle is to do the following:
1. Pull up a long term monthly chart like this one
2. Note all of the big highs (green) and lows (red).
3. Build a 2 tables: the first being how long in months or weeks that it took to get to each high from the low and what % of the low price did the market achieve. The % will be like 310% or the price tripled plus 10%.
4. The second table is how long it took in months for the market to reach a big low in weeks after a big high. What % of decline did the market take before it reached a major intermediate low or its final low.
This exercise will give you context as to where the market is in this cycle and where it could end up. When i posted here on agtalk in the spring of 2020 that the market was fixing to go up dramatically, I had already done this excercise and its what kept me in the market through all the ups and downs on the way to the 2021 top.
Do it once on a spread sheet and then all you have to do is update it.
The second chart is looking at the first 2 big highs in this era of price outlined in yellow and what happened the next year once price bottomed which is outlined in red.
 (8D1911B8-FA9E-4129-BC12-FAA99150D8F9 (full).jpeg)
 (3109D806-0DD4-4A01-8F0A-460E061198D3 (full).jpeg)
Attachments
----------------
 8D1911B8-FA9E-4129-BC12-FAA99150D8F9 (full).jpeg (63KB - 218 downloads)
3109D806-0DD4-4A01-8F0A-460E061198D3 (full).jpeg (70KB - 199 downloads)
| |
|
Corn
