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Central Missouri | Corn went down from 4.85-4.55 and beans from 13.50-12.40ish since the last report so alot has been figured in. Alot of what you get on report day is people out of position that get out. I.e. longs not wanting to be long any more because of the report so they sell. The corn market appears to be much closer to at least building a temporary low and possibly its winter low than the report response indicates. Alot of the market is money flow which is hard to gauge and causes price to move further than one would expect or seems reasonable but the momentum indicators in corn are getting into oversold territory into a seasonal normal low time. Still could go down 10-20-30 cents for a seasonal low but its closer now than a month ago.
As farmers we have to look at the opportunities that the market provides. This sell off if nothing else is providing a basis pop. The last 4 years have provided a text book lesson on how big highs act. My goal is to buy the low with low risk or sell puts against the low and finish locking in our basis.
We dont know that a low will be put in in jan/feb but there normally is one and this market has gone down enough that it is possible but it could go down all the way into april/may. April may lows arent normal but they do occur. Normally the market makes a low in harvest and a second or secondary low into jan/feb then increases into the april-july window then either makes a high or low in august and then again at harvest. That is kinda normal but there are years that are counter cyclical. Jmo
Edited by ehoff 1/13/2024 05:29
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Market Comments - USDA Breakdown
