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S Illinois | And the low of that 1994 crop was in Nov. 1994 not Jan. 1995. Prices bottom in the fall not Jan. Lower lows in Jan when compared to fall is counter seasonal.
Edit: Drilling down on those poor production years, in normal years prices bottom in fall and rise from there. Then prices peak in May-June and then fall into harvest again. Poor production years disrupt this so that the fall prices never go low(short crop long tail). So that’s why the Jan low never gets taken out. But that tells us nothing as to what the previous fall low was. Like after the 94 crop, the true low was in Nov and then climbed. If 95 was a normal production year, the Jan low would have been taken out in the fall of 1995. But the poor crop didn’t allow for that.
Edited by w1891 1/12/2024 08:14
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Corn
