As usual a lot of noise going into todays “measuring up” of grain stocks in storage vs what the WASDE/NASS has been guesstimating.

The grain stocks which we will get today must match.. production.. plus carry-in plus imports.. minus domestic useage.. in feed, grind, ERROR and exports.

For instance the 2019 Corn Crop had large “prevented plantings” which that debate never really got settled.. was the corn crop over estimated.. yield.. etc.. in classic NAT fashion we’ve argued this ad nauseam.

Interestingly the WASDE has 2019 Corn Feed Usage + Residual ERROR kind of high.. vs trend.. Do they go back and lower the error by offsetting with lowering the yield.. which then slightly moderates the up-trending yields? (See picture below.) ???  Sure looks like 2019 is an outlier of.. 400.. 450 myn bushels..??

The WASDE historically slow walks adjustments.. last years drought in Argentina Dec of 22 soybean crop to Dec of 23 is about cut in half… from 49 to 25.. and Argentina is still below that number.

“Here we go again”.. with Brazils 2023/24 Soybean crop at 16?.. 161..162 or 163 (not gonna bother looking it up.. “high”) with most estimates around 157.. with some low balls down around 140 or less.. I’ll be surprised if the WASDE is lower than.. 158 today.. but expect probably under 150 a year from now for the same crop.  See last years Argentina crop.  However by then.. we’ll 2024/25 will be.. “higher.”

The big debate here in the US is the size of this years crop.. some producers in the Eastern Cornbelt harvested record crops.. mixed reviews as you move west.. a lot of pretty good to record with some “not so much”.. to failed and unharvested out here.. 5 fields of unharvested soybeans remain around me here.. “not worth harvesting.”

Basis values are highly variable.. with some corn offers below $4 in the upper plains.. Dakotas and Wisconsin.. etc..

While quick ship “push bids” of over $5 are being shown down here in feedlot country during another winter storm.  I was offered around $5.35 yesterday.. meh.  I’m down to a couple loads.. may have better opportunities down the road.. and nicer weather.

We’ve had some snow.. melted that and now face bitterly cold wind chills with temperatures not seen since the power outages in February of.. 2022?  Which did a lot of damage..spiking natural gas prices.. and starting the rise in fertilizer costs.

9 below actual temperatures are expected here Sunday morning.. ouch!

winter kill??

Who’s gonna blink first the under sold sellers or the under bought buyers?

The buyers think the crop estimates say the producers are sitting on a lot of unsold bushels.. here at the card table.

the grain stocks report is the government about to show our hand.

cheers.

edit add.. I reported the bin in the picture below as nearly full.. 37 semi loads.. on Dec 1st.. which.. it was.. we’ve since nearly emptied out.. but got “a few more” in another bin yet to go.

hmmm.. offered +70 H

???


 

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