IN555 - 1/10/2024 18:42

Brazil at 51.1 yield is still likely too high considering Parana(2nd producing state)is now having a dry spell during its critical time while Mato Grasso has had plenty of issues. I think a final guess around 50 is a fair estimate at this point but that still puts the whole crop around 152 mmt. Total estimate for SA would be around 210. I think the market is over done to the downside but it takes sub 205 imo to get a serious rally going. Paraguay and Argentina (86% planted) still has plenty of time for estimates to come down. Friday's wasde can change everything I just said based on final US numbers.