Hanktbd - 1/9/2024 22:03

World projected carryover stocks do not appear to be burdensome according to this report. Not sure how that exactly affects our US prices.

11.16.2023By Arvin Donley
LONDON, ENGLAND – The International Grains Council (IGC) in its latest Grain Market Report revised global soybean production higher in marketing year 2023-24 to a record 395 million tonnes.

The increase in output is chiefly linked to bigger crops in South America, the IGC said.


At the same time, global soybean consumption is projected to increase 8% year on year to an all-time high of 386 million tonnes. Carryover stocks are predicted to remain unchanged from the 2022-23 marketing year at 171 million tonnes.

Led by expectations for a bumper corn harvest, the IGC’s forecast for total grains (coarse grains and wheat) in 2023-24 was revised slightly higher to 2.295 billion tonnes, the second largest on record behind the 2021-22 crop.

Still, total grains demand is projected to outstrip supply, reaching a record 2.308 billion tonnes. The Council sees a continued slide in carryover stocks at 585 million tonnes, which would be the lowest level in nine years.

The IGC sees the bumper world corn crop reaching 1.223 billion tonnes, up from 1.161 billion the previous year. It said the upgraded outlook for corn was “tied mainly to reports of better-than-expected US yields, as well as an increased wheat figure, reflecting latest updates from Ukraine, Russia and Turkey.”

Global wheat production was revised slightly higher than the previous month’s estimate but still 2% below last year’s total output of 804 million tonnes. Record-high wheat demand will bring carryover stocks to their lowest level since 2016-17 at 264 million tonnes, the IGC said.

The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index increased slightly over the last months at 262 as gains in soybean and rice prices more than compensated for weakness in other grain markets. However, the price index is still nearly 17% lower than this time a year ago.