| zenfarm - 1/1/2024 15:36
A great example of a pseudo science.
I’m not into the occult nor any of that.
I think Mike makes a good case below that some things are physics.. and they repeat.. or cycle. We have seasons.. good years.. and bad years.
The ENSO cycle.. El Niño, La Niña means different things to different locations.
https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/lanina/enso_evolution-status-fcsts-web.pdf
The La Niña in the spring of 2011.. aligned with flooding in the upper Missouri.. later that summer Texas and the US southern plains fried.. “Guys what we have here is 40,000 feet of Super dry air.. it’s where Cold fronts go to DIE!!”
That dry area coupled with the La Niña continuing led to the Cornbelt drought (Illinois) during the Summer of 2012.
The the cycle flipped.. I’m not saying that El Niño was the only reason for the flooding in the Spring of 2019.. but it may have helped..
Now another La Niña and dryness through the southern plains.. worst HRW Wheat in many farmers career last year.. Even though we were transitioning to the wetter part of the cycle.. now.. we’re already expecting to flip back.
Other factors.. climatic.. economic.. fiscal.. monetary.. policy.. wars.. psychology.. etc all play a part. Benner May have identified some.. as pointed out below.. not perfect.. but repeatable? Sure.
This paper talks about linkages between the ENSO cycle and Solar output.
https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1674283423000831I think it makes a good case.
El Niño May be beneficial for the US southern plains.. while detrimental to Mato Groso.. ??? As they break out the Cerrado.. will that impact along with ENSO?
who knows? Maybe.
Does agricultural production impact markets? Yal.. probably.. not as much as when Benner was alive.. but the drought probably contributed to inflation.
The Fed was probably more concerned about Fiscal restraint (or the lack thereof) vs Agricultural production.. but.. rising commodity prices contributed.. no doubt.
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