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South central kansas |
Obviously you are a believer in the benner cycle, food for thought.
From the article,
https://www.wealthmorning.com/2023/09/22/649240/benners-prophecy-is-...
“Now, intriguingly, the Benner Cycle uses this pattern:
Economic booms that happen in a 16-18-20-year pattern.
Low prices that happen in a 8-9-10-year pattern.
Economic recessions that happen in a 5-6-7-year pattern.
But here’s where things get a little curious:
Samuel Benner’s original chart was pretty limited. It only ran until 1891. It didn’t go further than that.
However, another forecaster — George Tritch — apparently saw the value in using Benner’s model. So he adapted the chart, then extended it all the way out to 2059. Interestingly, Tritch would add more content in the form of buy/sell instructions, which were not present in the original chart.
But watch out: there’s wild controversy here. Tritch appeared to believe that market cycles are linked to planetary orbits. In other words, the mood gets bullish or bearish depending to Earth’s position relative to other celestial bodies.
Be warned: this financial astrology is a pseudoscience. It can’t be tested. It can’t be proven. It’s subject to a whole lot of randomness and subjectivity.
So, is the Benner Cycle legitimate at all?
Interestingly, the chart has been floating around social media for a while now. In regards to its actual authenticity, you will find both sceptics and believers:
It’s important to remember that past performance is never any guarantee of the future.
The Benner Cycle may be a fascinating historical document — but it is not widely accepted by most mainstream analysts.
Critics argue that market cycles are influenced by a wide range of factors, including fiscal and monetary policies, global economic conditions, technological advancements, and geopolitical events. This makes it difficult to predict market behaviour based only on Samuel Benner’s model.
Nonetheless, supporters say that the Benner Cycle’s simplicity is its greatest strength. While the years listed on the chart don’t line up 100% with actual historical events, it’s close enough. As the contrarian logic, investors may benefit when they buy during a famine and sell during a feast. This may provide a margin of safety, as well as maximise profits.
But, personally, I’m cautious about this chart. Investment decisions based on the esoteric and the occult can be questionable in the long-term:
So, is the Benner Cycle simply another case of confirmation bias? Are people seeing a pattern in there when it’s actually gibberish? Or is the Benner Cycle the real deal? Does it truly predict the ebb and flow of animal spirits?
I’m eager to hear your thoughts on the matter. Are you a sceptic? Or are you a believer? Please email me at [email protected] and let me know what you think.”
Regards,
John Ling
Analyst, Wealth Morning
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