Early Yield results are disappointing.. ominous outlook for double crop in El Niño years.

https://www.soybeansandcorn.com/articles/9830/?page=1&

“Early soybean yields in Mato Grosso have been very low in the range of 7 to 30 sacks per hectare (6.2 to 26.8 bu/ac) with some of the worst fields abandoned because the yields were so low, it would not pay for harvesting. These are some of the lowest soybean yields ever recorded in the cerrado region of central Brazil where widespread soybean production started in the 1980's.

Some of the early harvested soybeans will be followed by a second crop of cotton. Mato Grosso is the largest cotton producing state in Brazil and the safrinha cotton accounts for more than 85% of the state's cotton production. Since the soybean harvest is starting early, there should be ample time to plant the safrinha cotton before the ideal planting window closes at the end of January.

Early safrinha cotton planting could be especially important this year because during years with an El Nino, the summer rainy season can end earlier than normal. The last significant rain in central Brazil usually occurs in early May, but during years with El Nino, the last rain can occur as early as late March or early April. Therefore, cotton producers want to plant their safrinha cotton as early as possible this growing season.“ 

Prices are down.. Less inputs lined up this year.. Could be a rough finish.