ks_cover_crop - 12/24/2023 11:17
Those same guys probably sold their 2020 corn crop for $4 more than the forward sell guys so I'm sure they are doing fine. I typically forward hedge a good portion of my grain but over a 10 year period doubt I'm doing that much better than the guy doing gbs because of years like 2020. The only thing that gives a guy selling like me an advantage is capturing carry with grain bins. I'd go out on a limb and say a guy with grain bins doing GBS is probably averaging a higher price than someone forward selling for harvest delivery and selling remaining bushels across the scale.
Exactly
How much money was lost preselling in major bull markets
I remember the 2004-05-06 periods. Guys some persold and didn’t raise it. They ended up rolling to 2007/08. Millions and billions where lost then
What happens is in bear markets one should be selling ahead……capture carry. Basis
But when they over do it and the market turns bullish it becomes difficult to adjust unless you have a hedge account and dont get headfaked out……almost every year when it looks like the market is really going to take off…..and you don’t know what you are going to raise…..that is typically when you should be selling……which is when most become very bullish……
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perma bulls and perma bears
