| Waterlooiowa - 12/23/2023 21:51
Both on here in Market talk and on twitter I have seen people that are always bullish before crop and livestock reports.I swear that if they followed their own advice they would be bankrupt. They don't seem to care that they are wrong 3/4 of the time,,and yet I hear others quoting them. If there are 5 negatives to a report and one potential positive they will carry on that the limit down move after the report is a fluke and all will be well tomorrow.
Years ago dtn had a lot of free trials to advisory services,,even some of the big companies seemed to "forget" about bad recommendations while boldly making new ones,,
I will never forget the look on Mark Pearson had when a weekly guest said to sell cash beans and new crop immediately because they were going to collapse but to buy all the bean meal you needed for the next year because the price was going to soar
I have been called a perma bull a time or two…….i know I am not smart enough to consistently out guess the market…..or I would put all my money where my mouth is…..
I believe that producers get pressured to sell from every one from the merchandisers, bankers, chemical companies …..you name it…..anyone that either is owed money from a farmer or is buying grain from a farmer has a motivation that isnt always in the best interest of the farmer…..it can be….
I also believe that more money is lost from selling early then will ever be lost form selling too late…..I believe that one day in the future we will have elevator after elevator go broke when we go from a bear market to a bull market……I dont think they manage the margin risk that is associated from big moves…….its like a house of cards
Some year we will get too many farmers pre-sold because of all the bearish advisors, commercials etc…….then we will get a drought like Argentina had last year, or Canada had a few years ago……..Corn will go from 3-5 area…..to 8-10 or more……banks wont cover elevators because they dont understand…..we will have a repeat of the 96 corn market…..or the 08 MPLS wheat market…….
So i tend to spite out bullish info….. or at the very least mention any possible bullish points in the marketplace………..but i always try to preach to guys to use good risk management……use things like exit dates, triggers, get comfortable with risk reward…..put in floors……sell calls….always sell high IV calls in grains that one grows…….just learn how to roll them before you sell them
I dont believe in being part of the its going up…..or its going down……
…because unless you add the time frame an opinion of the market doesn’t matter……both the bulls and the bears can claim victory……without the element of time
Last summer and spring I had talked about the 2012 drought over and over…..then we finally got that rally……..and I thought we where about 10 days away from new all time highs on corn……I stayed bullish…..but I also had reccomended the purchase of puts….and the sale of corn…….and the guys that had courage calls ……most of them ….not all of them sold them and did very well….the guys that tried to hit home runs hit home runs……as did the guys that tried to hi singles ……but those that tried to hit the grand slam…..they ended up striking out for the most part……….
Buy fear and sell greed……..
I have had very few of my actual customers call me a perma bull…… but i get called out on social media all the time for being one…….which is fine……my customers know that I practice being comfortable…….while reading what the market is telling us…. …using the tools out there to get comfortable that leave the most flexibility to those that need it.
Don’t judge ones performance unless you are actually falling their advice…my advice is always going to be on a case by case situation…….because it is not one size fits all
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perma bulls and perma bears
