| IN555 - 11/17/2023 11:31
Article I linked says private companies already dropping 8-10 mmt from poor planting. Last year planting was ideal so no shock. As we have seen here perfect weather from here on could offset the planting a bunch but it also opens the door for a big miss if things aren’t good during pod fill. The next 1-2 months could be a wild ride
You can find probably anything you want on Twitter or X or whatever it’s called now..
https://twitter.com/tx_marcelo/status/1725606956704862381?s=61
Looks dry like Kansas and says “he’s throwing in the towel on soybeans and going to cotton”.. so ???
Speaking of dry.. from the state of perpetual drought.. I can count at least 5 80’s to quarter sections of dryland Soybeans which were not harvested around us this fall.
Most dryland crops failed in 2022.. some of the HRW Wheat didn’t emerge until February.. dry then monsoonal type misty rains.. 0.05”, 0.25”, 1.15”, 0.15”, 0.10”.. nothing that really added up but kept us out of the wheat harvest fields.. rained 24 out of 50 days.. threw in the towel on 7/20/23 as unharvested wheat.. making 15 bu tops was sprouting and chocked out by pigweeds.. we got 92% of planted.. “we’ll at least the fall crops should be good.”
A week of 105.. break.. followed by another week of 106.. we got an inch late August.. or early September.. but the heat fried what appeared to be 40 bushel looking dryland soybeans.. with NOTHING to fill the pods with… not even BB’s.. just total Abortion.. “Wow.. when’s the last time you’ve seen that?”
Even tried parking a combine in the field.. “hmm.. not working like a few weeks ago now..”
The irrigated Corn was decent.. the dryland (mostly) sucked.. a few fields of sorghum and early corn were respectable given what they went through.. 80 to 100 bu.. relatively speaking Western Kansas looked decent from the monsoonal rains.. Dodge City looked like Mt Hope (near Wichita on K 96) 100 bu dryland corn.. but Mt Hope looked like Dodge City.. 30 bu dryland Corn.. so.. it goes.
we NEED this rain forecast.. 2”.. then 1.30”.. then 0.50”.. now??? Hope it’s more than a heavy mist..
”ain’t much” in the soil moisture tank.
Golly the Benner cycle.. hope this doesn’t pan out.. 89 years since 1936.. the year which put “the dirty” in “the dirty 30’s”
”yea”
hmmm.. this link is interesting.. not matching my 89 year cycle which I thunked was a part of it but.. (new thread material.. I’ll post above.). But interesting..
https://www.therationalinvestor.com/blog/how-the-benner-cycle-predicts-100-years-of-market-movement
As a farmer, Samuel knew that the seasonal cycles affected crops, which then affect supply and demand, which affects the price. Benner looked deeper into these cycles and found an 11-year cycle in corn and pig prices with peaks every 5/6 years. This matches the 11-year solar cycle. Benner figured that this solar cycle affects crop yield, affecting revenue, supply/demand, and price. |
beans..
