| IN555 - 11/11/2023 20:38
All we heard last year was how great of a crop brazil was having and that turned out to be 158. So now you are saying "great" is "normal" so just 5mmt more should be the starting point? Sure they might even beat it but 10 out of the last 12 years the usda overestimated their production in early reports, that isn't a small percentage. Previous record is 195 and yes I get there was big hiccups the last two years but 26mmt over previous as a STARTING point? What is wrong with raising the bar if things look good after its in the ground?
So according to what they have been doing they will print just shy of 184 in May for the US, does that really make sense considering how flat the trend has been the last 10 crops?
I’m not sure how many new acres Brazil plans on seeds this year, as I’ve spent just as little time in SA as anyone here has, but if they are adding acres this year, like every year in the recent past, it only stands to reason that their production will be higher. Also it is likely that the acres that are in 3-4 th year of production become more productive, as they have had time to get better fertility. I certainly wouldn’t bet on a large amount of added acres and less total production.
Argentina had a 2012 type year last season…. 25mmt vs ‘normal’ of about 50mmt ( ‘great’ conditions would land in the 55-60mmt range), so again I wouldn’t bet on Argentina having back to back 2012 type years, but anything is possible.
As far as the US, we are more than due for a growing season that doesn’t beat the hell out of the crop somewhere. But as the corn growing area expands, it is likely that somewhere it is less than ideal, and far from perfect. I think it’s important to not focus so much on the average yield line and pay attention to total production, as thst is truly the number that matters. Especially when adding acres with 130-150 yield potential. It’s possible to have record production without record yields. It’s just math.
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Chinese bean purchase
