| IN555 - 11/9/2023 11:25
Beans are essentially in rationing mode and they need to be. Demand has been forced to be cut by the big swing and miss from the market and usda. Exports are projected down 237 million because we simply don't have enough. So to answer your question absolutely not. If SA has any kind of harvest delay price will need to go up significantly. If SA has any kind of meaningful production reduction from current estimates price will need to stay up significantly from current levels.
Demand hasn't (or isn't) projected to be cut. Crush volume should be higher than the last couple years. Meal exports creep higher, as some need protein, but don't want the whole bean. Demand for protein hasn't been cut. We are 'losing out on exports' because world wide we are only competitive for a few months of the year not because demand is poor. If SA had a harvest delay, might sell a couple boat loads on a hot bid, but won't have a long term effect. If they have a poor growing season again like the last 2 years, their crop doesnt have to be rationed out for a whole calendar year, just to Oct-Nov when US will fill the worlds needs. |
number report?
