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NW Indiana | As ecmofarm pointed out some common sense needs applied. Its not fair to really say who is correct or not because we could choose to look at different data points. Why is trend based on 30 years? Why not 10, or 20 or 100? So if we keep applying 1.9 does a national yield of 189.2 in just 4 years seem likely? 200 in just 10 more years seem likely? Sure it can happen but does it seem likely that is the trajectory we are on after seeing the last 10 years results?
During the 30 year trendline we have seen huge advancements in seed with traits and improvements is genetics. Fungicide became common use. The ethanol boom took many operations from cash poor to the ability to invest in many ways that improved production, the question becomes does the last few years of good prices stimulate another leg of advancements to reach new levels or has the low hanging fruit already been picked?
When I stop and think of 189.2 in just 4 years I think it that sounds unrealistic and the curve needs flattened. | |
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Fast planting pace
