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Central Missouri | I havnt studied wheat at all for a month since we have been in harvest. Our wheat is in the bin, sold about 12 months ago on flex delivery hta’s, and rolled futures too early to march. Price is in no mans land so im not in any hurry to study it.
The land of opportunity will be ahead for srw. Opportunity to me means taking a position with low risk. To get low risk as a farmer i either need extremely low prices so i can be a buyer or high prices so i can sell and not care where price goes.
I have 2 marketing compartments in my brain. The first one is to make sure we have very profitable years, the second one is to take advantage of very low risk timings in the market. Wheat may be aproaching the second one.
When i start to study wheat when things slow down, i will pull up the long term charts and study every pattern where wheat made a big high and i will see what percentage of that move higher it went down and how long it took. I will also look at commitment of traders data to see how the money moved at the bottom of each of those times. Then i will look at the current chart high to low and see how it correlates.
If you want to scare yourself do this on beans, its why i stated a week or 2 ago you better heed keatons warning. Not because i thought he was right but because of the consequences to an unsold farmers cash flow if he is. | |
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Price guys?
