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| I agree with your downtrend assessment. I think being generally bearish has been helpful for the marketing decisions in my career. As far as upsides, I wonder how the Russia/Ukraine deal might impact production over the next 5 years. I have no idea how the availability of parts/supplies in that area is. But if there really are sanctions and difficulties, could it be possible they could only patch things together for so long? If you are a young, handy, ambitious person in that area you may be getting recruited to fight for your country, not fix on the drill. Farm machinery/ import and export infrastructure/ transportation infrastructure also need maintaining. Both countries are dumping cheap grain on the world hoping to keep these avenues open when things get better. What if they don’t get better for 5 years? Long run I think things will get restored back to normal, but if there is a glitch for a year or two it may provide support. Spring wheat stocks are the tightest they’ve been since 08/09. | |
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5 reasons why price continues to erode from here
