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| I live in NE Iowa, near Oelwein and had to run a airlock up to get worked on in Clear Lake on Friday. on the way back I counted fields - of the 221 fields that I passed, 108 had ears that had ears turned down, husk brown and plants anywhere from light green to completely toast. I was talking to someone Saturday who said if you go west on 18, its as bad or worse. I have also heard that if you went from Cedar Rapids to Dewitt is bad, Also SE Minnesota isn't good
Once an ear turns down it collapses the shank and its done gaining weight
Ken Ferrie's boots in the field podcast from last week stated that most of the eastern corn belt looked good, however it was behind - pre-dent - thinking it would need 45-60 days until black layer. Blamed it on the wildfire smoke. That would mean needing to postpone a killing frost around Nov 1. Is that possible out there?
Conclusion - Considering only 60% of your dry matter is accumulated in kernels at dent, and the furthest along corn I can find is around 1/3 milk line that has not died prematurely, how much of the nations crop is in jeopardy of poor test weight and small kernel size? I've been told once kernels go through dent they don't get any bigger, and what I am seeing that's a concern, especially on early corn. I can buy the fact the smoke did slow us down, but maybe protected us from the June heat at the same time.
Is it possible that premature death, small kernels and eastern corn belt not making it to the finish line result in a 10-20% smaller crop than what's currently anticipated? Kernel counts can tell potential, but Kernel size will be the key. Without rain, and upcoming heat, I think corn in the midwest will end up sacrificing the ear to keep the plant alive.
I predict the Iowa's crop is going to be at least 15-20 bu less than currently advertised.
Edited by JDB1980 8/28/2023 09:23
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My Perspective on the Crop
