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Nivida
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What_If
Posted 2/22/2024 08:09 (#10634707)
Subject: Nivida


Southern Iowa
Is the company for real? May double in value from September. Almost a $400 gain/share.

I know it has to do with computers, but can someone give me a simple explanation of what the company actually does?

Will other tech stocks follow?



Edited by What_If 2/22/2024 08:09
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Deltamudd
Posted 2/22/2024 08:25 (#10634743 - in reply to #10634707)
Subject: RE: Nivida


I hear they know the perfect pattern to arrange rocks to make them think really well. Think about that, they know how to arrange elements to make them perform complicated math functions.


but in all honesty, I guess it’s data centers? People are saying it’s ai and that it’s a bubble that will pop but I’m not sure. I guess sales will prbly slow down some when amazon google meta and other big tech take a break from building data centers. Data centers are essentially just massive computer farms and the thing that makes a computer super is the semiconductor in it. And nvidia has for a long long time made the best semiconductor. And if you had to build a data center for ai, or streaming services, or crypto mining, and it was going need to be “future proof” and last a long time you’d prbly want the best of the best which is nvidia. I think ai is a scam. I think crypto is a scam. But peak human technology is actually nvidia designs and I don’t think “technology” is a scam. It’d sure be nice to see a major pull back. Their biggest weakness is they rely on tsm who relies on asml. If Taiwan gets invaded well….. but xi recently came to america and Bent the knee so I don’t think Taiwan is getting invaded just yet.
There’s a lot of other tech companies out there but three really come to mind for me, they won’t be pulling an smci I don’t think but I think they are pretty important in the supply chain. Smci for example could disappear and it wouldn’t matter. I like asml and tsm and amd
I also think nvidia could pull back to 400 ish in the next couple of years

https://talk.newagtalk.com/forums/thread-view.asp?tid=1140381&mid=10...

Edited by Deltamudd 2/22/2024 08:56
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JRosenberger
Posted 2/22/2024 10:39 (#10634940 - in reply to #10634707)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Milford, IL
Nvidia has been around a long time - their main line of work, at least in the beginning was graphics processing hardware for computers and gaming systems (GPUs). One of the big breaks came about the year 2000 when Microsoft decided to get into the game console business and Nvidia supplied the GPUs for the original Xbox hardware. The GPUs on these game consoles were not separate cards like PC hardware to be installed in the PCIe slot - but smaller chips about the size of a CPU. The original Xbox was not the commercial success Microsoft had hoped but the hardware blew away the competetion in terms of performance and capability (PS2, Sega Dreamcast, and Nintendo Gamecube were competetors at the time).

I don't understand the AI hype. Nvidia has some very capable hardware that accelerates machine 'learning' and 'artificial intelligence' - but exactly what is driving the stock performance is a mystery to me.

AMD and Intel would be some of the competetors in the same space as Nvidia.
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Deltamudd
Posted 2/22/2024 10:41 (#10634945 - in reply to #10634940)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Isn’t AMD in Xboxes now?
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JRosenberger
Posted 2/22/2024 10:56 (#10634971 - in reply to #10634945)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Milford, IL
Yes, AMD was in the 360 consoles. About that time my wife and I started having kids and gaming time went to zero for about a decade. I have no idea what is in Xbox 1 or series X hardware - our boys are getting older now and getting into some games appropriate for their age so I do spend a little occasional game time with them - I have never looked inside series X/S machine and only a few Xbox 1s.

I always though Nvidias main customer was PC game hardware enthusiasts but their parabolic sales growth suggests that is no longer the main buyer.
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buck1400
Posted 2/22/2024 11:00 (#10634978 - in reply to #10634971)
Subject: RE: Nivida


West Central Ohio
nvidia gpu's also used big time in crypto mining although that is slowing down now.
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Deltamudd
Posted 2/22/2024 11:07 (#10634984 - in reply to #10634971)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Custom built computers for gaming where the graphics card alone is 2000$. (I don’t think that’s as big of a market as people think) Amd does alot of mass market gaming stuff I think. But even they said that segment would slow down in last earnings call. Yet here we are

Here’s how I see it and I’ve tried explaining it on here but maybe I shouldn’t use metaphors. Is this peak human civilization? Or will thre prbly be even more computers and faster smarter computers in the future?

Seems like right now everyone is upgrading and there will be a lull but technology doesn’t seem to quit. It’s an unrelenting force. And nvidia designs the best.


Honestly I think ASML is the most important company in the world tho
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JRosenberger
Posted 2/22/2024 12:36 (#10635093 - in reply to #10634984)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Milford, IL
Things are different, thats for sure, not sure about peak human civilization but the differences today are striking when compared to my youth...

My friends and I had career aspirations of astronaut, engineer, doctor, pro sports player, etc at age 10 or so. Today, if I ask one of my son's friends what they what to do for work when they grow up the answer is often 'Youtuber' or 'professional gamer'. Small sample size, so Im not sure if this is an outlier, or if kids are very integrated into a digital type of existance that was not on the radar in my youth.

Back to the numbers, according to the 'Steam' (popular online gaming platform) survey Jan 2024 - Nvidia has just shy of 75% market share among active Steam players.
And, there were approximately 4.25 million PC gamers that played just the top 10 games on Steam in the last 24 hours. That doesn't count all the other games, or any of the active players on gaming consoles, PC only. top 10 only. Its neat that Steam makes that data available publicly to help understand the size of the market.
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Deltamudd
Posted 2/22/2024 12:43 (#10635102 - in reply to #10635093)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Compared to 27 million Xbox and 50 million ps5 and there’s a lot of old graphics cards in those steam figures. Again you can spend 2000$ on a graphics card or spend 500 on a gaming console. Not a lot of people out there willing to crank out 3500$ for their kids to play video games
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phishstik
Posted 2/22/2024 22:55 (#10635965 - in reply to #10634940)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Eastern ON
JRosenberger - 2/22/2024 10:39

Nvidia has been around a long time - their main line of work, at least in the beginning was graphics processing hardware for computers and gaming systems (GPUs). One of the big breaks came about the year 2000 when Microsoft decided to get into the game console business and Nvidia supplied the GPUs for the original Xbox hardware. The GPUs on these game consoles were not separate cards like PC hardware to be installed in the PCIe slot - but smaller chips about the size of a CPU. The original Xbox was not the commercial success Microsoft had hoped but the hardware blew away the competetion in terms of performance and capability (PS2, Sega Dreamcast, and Nintendo Gamecube were competetors at the time).

I don't understand the AI hype. Nvidia has some very capable hardware that accelerates machine 'learning' and 'artificial intelligence' - but exactly what is driving the stock performance is a mystery to me.

AMD and Intel would be some of the competetors in the same space as Nvidia.


You got most of it. They became a mojor player in computer graphics cards when the competition was weak. The big break I don't think anyone mentioned here yet was BitCoin. To mine and run transactions on bitcoin you could alter Nvidia'ss PC graphics cards to do the math for you. Prices went crazy and it was hard to get cards when bitcoin prices went high. Was worse during covid. They now pretty much slap whatever price tag they want on their high end video cards now $+1000.

Now they have cards geared for AI. However, instead of just letting consumers run the hardware this time though they are providing the service. They will run the AI "simulations" for companies. You can see alot of their new income is from datacenter services. There is competition with AMD and Intel but they aren't caught up yet.

So either the competition catches up and everyone does it, or people start doing scary stuff with AI and we get laws against it, or Nvidia keeps rocketing ahead.
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reformedbanker
Posted 2/22/2024 11:14 (#10634986 - in reply to #10634707)
Subject: RE: Nivida


About 40% of revenue is selling their hardware to the computing giants of Amazon, Facebook, Google, and Microsoft - according to Bloomberg.

I imagine the balance ends up in computers, servers, gaming consoles, bitcoin mining, robotics, vehicles, etc.
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Womp
Posted 2/22/2024 11:47 (#10635026 - in reply to #10634707)
Subject: RE: Nivida


E SD
Graphics processors (GPU's) are much more efficient at technical calculations than CPU's.
Nvidia is the 800lb gorilla in that area since AMD (chief competitor) basically stopped trying to compete and Intel has spotty performance in the GPU biz.
Nvidia can charge what they want.

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FW30
Posted 2/22/2024 12:59 (#10635123 - in reply to #10634707)
Subject: RE: Nivida


EC SD
Yes absolutely for real. By most valuation metrics their stock is getting cheaper as it goes higher. This is because their business revenues and profits are soaring faster than their share price. Not long ago, I had posted here that their stock was heading to $700 soon and likely could reach $1000 by the end of the year. They are well past $700 now and clearly on track to hit $1000 this year based on another blow out earnings report yesterday.

Their revenue is now 80% from data center products, and majority of that is for AI workloads. AI requires monstrous amounts of computing power and NVDA has a huge market share in that space. They are sold out for the full year and the insatiable demand is letting them expand profit margins along with production volumes.

What could stop them from this continued rapid growth? Well not much, other than some black swan type event like China-Taiwan war, WWIII, or similar. Otherwise they will continue this growth for at least another year and likely another few years. They announced a new recurring revenue product for managing their products in the customer's data center. They predict huge revenues and profits from this solution, and I agree it is likely to increase their growth rate (and share price) even more than currently predicted.

Do not take a short position on NVDA. I shorted the $550 puts over their earnings report and captured over 90% of the put premium in a single day. Too bad for the shorts...

Here is their table of revenues over the last couple years.





(NVDA Revenue Trend (full).jpg)



Attachments
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Attachments NVDA Revenue Trend (full).jpg (59KB - 36 downloads)
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Dvr
Posted 2/22/2024 16:50 (#10635392 - in reply to #10635123)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Edgerton MN
What was the value of the puts yesterday? Is each put for a 100 shares?
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FW30
Posted 2/22/2024 19:08 (#10635572 - in reply to #10635392)
Subject: RE: Nivida


EC SD
The NVDA Mar 8 550 puts were $4 yesterday and I bought them back at $0.23 this morning. So $377 gain per 100 share contract...

These were 20% out of the money yesterday so really easy money. I posted about this exact trade last week and even called it "free money" at the time. I do this sort of trade regularly throughout the year and can't remember a single loss in the last 18 months... I am really disciplined on which stocks, strike prices, and timeframes though, since like all things there are some hard lessons to be learned with options trading...
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Dvr
Posted 2/22/2024 20:27 (#10635731 - in reply to #10635572)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Edgerton MN
Thank you. Any option tips you want to share? I know writing them is usually the profitable side, but I don't know how to limit the risk.
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FW30
Posted 2/22/2024 21:50 (#10635897 - in reply to #10635731)
Subject: RE: Nivida


EC SD
Many different approaches out there for sure, but here is what I learned in the last couple of years of put option writing:

1) Don't write puts on an equity that has no real or little intrinsic value - like companies with zero profits, massive debts, falling earnings, etc. Stick with the winners.
2) Avoid earnings releases, Fed Reserve rate change announcements, etc. or at least adjust to strikes with lower delta for these events.
3) If you want to reduce risk, then use spreads to insure your max potential loss. I did not find this approach useful for me, but it is the "textbook" way...
4) Keep the timeframes low. I like 2 weeks and under, but sometimes go to three weeks max to align to a monthly contract (when weeklies are not available or thinly traded).
5) Avoid contracts where open interest is low unless you plan to hold to expiration. For me low is under 200 contracts.
6) Avoid Delta over 20, and try for 10 or 15 instead. Make it worthwhile by choosing contracts with implied volatility over 30% else the premium is just too low.
7) If your strike looks like it will be overrun by price moving against you, then rollout to an out of the money strike right away. Don't let your contract go into the money or you will not be able to rollout without significant losses. I rarely need to do rollout, but when I do, I look for a free roll. This lowers the strike in exchange for a few more weeks. Look to exit the position as soon as reaching break even or small profit or even take a loss if things really look grim. Rollout can become a deeper hole of losses, so sometimes better to take a loss right away especially if the facts have changed in a way that invalidates your view of the stock's outlook. Also consider just keeping the premium and buying the shares when they get assigned to you. I try to avoid all of this by following the other tips in this list.
8) Ideally write puts on a significant down day of at least 2% as long as the reason for the drop is not specific to the equity you are writing puts on.
9) If you gain 50% or more of the premium in first few days, take the profit instead of waiting for more profit. Options move quickly and I find around half of the time I am able to take this early profit and move on instead of waiting / risking loss until expiration.
10) Don't be afraid to sit on the sidelines during significant bear market time periods, just patiently wait for a new bull market or at least more market stability... Perhaps switch to a covered call strategy or some other trade idea instead.

*** This is just sharing my personal experience. This is not a guide for success, or financial advice, so make all trades at your own risk. Options trading has significant risk of 100% losses or more...

Edited by FW30 2/22/2024 21:56
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Dvr
Posted 2/23/2024 07:34 (#10636181 - in reply to #10635897)
Subject: RE: Nivida


Edgerton MN
Thanks again. I see I have some learning to do yet!
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Skyfish
Posted 2/23/2024 07:22 (#10636164 - in reply to #10635123)
Subject: RE: Nivida



Central IA
Good post, accelerated earnings. Ride while you can.
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cyclones30
Posted 2/22/2024 15:32 (#10635298 - in reply to #10634707)
Subject: RE: Nivida



Midwest

I have a friend that got a bunch of their stock years and years ago. I think his account value just went up $100k today 

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dogg4585
Posted 2/22/2024 21:53 (#10635899 - in reply to #10635298)
Subject: RE: Nivida


sc ks
I listened to Druckenmiller talking about it 6 months ago. He said it was his biggest holding and was at nosebleed prices then...but he said if he was right it would be a company to hold for a couple years....well the Druck was right again and I didn't buy any, aside from whatever my mutual funds hold. Instead I bought land and watched the wheat price lose 20%. Oh well.
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