| Margins STINK!!
The Trump administration's Oil Interest are FIGHTING US!!
Export Interest are tied up in Tariff talks.
and a plant closing was announced this week..
other than that.. it wasn't the nuclear winter landscape that I expected.. Ethanol production is up 8 tenths of 1%.. (at least it's up..) Domestic Blended is up 0.3% (again at least it's up..) Stocks are up.. Implied Exports are up 1.9% very early into the new year..
Making TOTAL demand up 0.5%.. not as much as production.. hence the stocks gain.. but up.
Due to Higher Crude Oil prices (until recently) Gasoline demand is DOWN.. (thus the lower prices now may help..??) YET the Blend rate is actually respectably higher.. 1.7% at 9.9%.. so maybe the blender pumps are having an impact..??
It could be worse.. ?? but it's not pretty.. so we're hanging on by our finger nails.
Reports of new Refinery Exemption requests which are ILLEGAL are surfacing.. So we'll see how the TRUMP administration handles this.. | | | | | | | | | | | Computed | | | | | | | | | | | | | Weekly Production | | | | | | | number to balance | Computed | Actual | Total | Weekly bu | | Weekly US | | | Week | | Blenders Input | Imports | Stocks | Capacity | Residual and exports | Exports | Exports | Ethanol | Grind | Monthly | Year | Supplied Finished | | | | Ethanol k bbls/day | k bbls /day | k bbls /day | k bbls | k bbls | | k bbls /day | k bbls | Monthly | EIA | demand | | | myn bu | Motor Gasoline | | | | | | | | | | | 37,936 | | | | | | | | 2.85 | conversion | | Ethanol as % of | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 9/7/2018 | 1020 | | 918 | | 0 | | 22,894 | 60% | | 74.7 | | 523 | | | 992.7 | 105,221 | | | 9649 | 9.51% | | | 9/14/2018 | 1051 | | 928 | | 0 | | 22,746 | 60% | | 144.1 | | 1009 | | | 1072.1 | 108,419 | | | 9534 | 9.73% | | | 9/21/2018 | 1036 | | 901 | | 0 | | 22,629 | 60% | | 151.7 | | 1062 | | | 1052.7 | 106,872 | | | 8987 | 10.03% | | | 9/28/2018 | 1015 | | 917 | | 0 | | 23,445 | 62% | | -18.6 | | -130 | 2464 | | 898.4 | 104,705 | | | 9102 | 10.07% | | | 10/5/2018 | 1040 | | 913 | | 71 | | 24,021 | 63% | | 115.7 | | 810 | | | 1028.7 | 107,284 | | | 9078 | 10.06% | | | 10/12/2018 | 1011 | | 933 | | 0 | | 24,130 | 64% | | 62.4 | | 437 | | | 995.4 | 104,293 | | | 9182 | 10.16% | | | 10/19/2018 | 1024 | | 940 | | 15 | | 23,897 | 63% | | 132.3 | | 926 | | | 1072.3 | 105,634 | | | 9324 | 10.08% | | | 10/26/2018 | 1059 | | 936 | | 0 | | 22,746 | 60% | | 287.4 | | 2012 | 4185 | | 1223.4 | 109,244 | | | 9262 | 10.11% | | | 11/2/2018 | 1068 | | 917 | | 0 | | 23,150 | 61% | | 93.3 | | 653 | | | 1010.3 | 110,173 | | | 9099 | 10.08% | | | 11/9/2018 | 1067 | | 926 | | 37 | | 23,514 | 62% | | 126.0 | | 882 | 1535 | | 1052.0 | 110,069 | | | 9192 | 10.07% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 18/19 MY 10 wks | 1039.1 | | 922.9 | | 12.3 | | 23317.2 | 61.5% | | 116.9 | | 818.4 | 3324.5 | #DIV/0! | 1039.8 | 107,191 | | | 9240.9 | 9.99% | | | 17/18 MY 11 wks | 1030.7 | | 919.9 | | 6.5 | | 21274.9 | 56.1% | | 114.8 | | 803.3 | 3344.5 | 2063.0 | 1034.7 | 106,328 | | | 9367.7 | 9.82% | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | | 863.7 | | | | | | | 18/19 vs 17/18 | 0.8% | | 0.3% | | | | 21497.0 | yr ago | | 1.9% | | 1.9% | -0.6% | #DIV/0! | 0.5% | 0.8% | | | -1.4% | 1.7% | | Weekly production number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yop_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Blenders Input.. http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=pet&s=w_epooxe_yir_nus_mbbld&f=w Weekly Imports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_IM0_NUS-Z00_MBBLD&f=W Weekly Stocks number http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=W_EPOOXE_SAE_NUS_MBBL&f=W Weekly US Product Supplied of Finished Motor Gasoline http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=WGFUPUS2&f=W Monthly US Exports of Ethanol http://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/hist/LeafHandler.ashx?n=PET&s=M_EPOOXE_EEX_NUS-Z00_MBBL&f=M
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Ethanol update.
