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Houston,Tx | A 2011 - 2017 comparison of GE crop ratings and estimated yield based on the comparison using ratios to distinguish between G & E ratings and % of total corn production within the 12 biggest producing states, IL, IN, OH, MI, IA, MN, WI, NE, ND, SD, MO, KS. The ratings are similar to 2011 for the 7/15-7/18 timeframe - 66 in 2011, 65 now. Comparing apples to apples I used 157 trend adjusted yield comparing to 2011's 147 bpa. I compared each state separately in the G & E column, weighting 22% more for excellent ( based on the 180-220 difference below - between G AND E). This snapshot is a relative comparison for this week. It can be done for ANY 2 years - 2011 was easiest with ratings being close.
For instance, IL had 49-12 (2011) 47-15 now, so minus 2 for g, + 3X.22 for ex. times 13.2% (IL relative corn prod in the US). -2+3.66X.132=+0.22. IL is 0.22 bushels above 2011. The total was 5.5 bu less than 2011 across the 12 states. 157 - 5.5 = 151.5
so while the ratings difference is only 1 for the 18 states, digging into big 12 reveals more, similar to Monday's report revealing a larger than 1% drop when considering each states pull.
no other data or opinion was used - only crop ratings differences between these 2 years at this juncture on the calendar.
To me this helps explain the puzzlement one feels when glancing at the report as in Monday.
Edited by c-xr-1 7/20/2017 19:39
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Follow up from below
